As the UK awaits the Autumn Budget on 26 November, our recent webinar with former Chancellor George Osborne unpacked what’s driving speculation, where tax changes could land and how investors and families can prepare
With the Autumn Budget set for 26 November, speculation is rife. Will inheritance tax rules tighten? Could pension allowances change? And what does this mean for your wealth?
As we start to consider the answer to these questions, we hosted an exclusive webinar featuring former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, alongside our own experts Edward Park, Chief Asset Management Officer and Lucy Spencer, Partner, Financial Planning Partner.
Their discussion offered a rare glimpse into what happens behind the scenes at the Treasury right now ahead of the Autumn Budget, and what individuals and businesses should be watching out for.
What makes this Budget so important is the context surrounding it. Economic growth is sluggish, inflation remains sticky at around 4% and unemployment is creeping up. Global uncertainty from trade tensions to geopolitical risks adds another layer of complexity, and this is all against a backdrop of a volatile political year for the Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Reeves has had to walk back announced changes to the winter fuel allowance and disability benefits, while at the same time finds herself hamstrung for both tax rises and borrowing by manifesto promises and fiscal rules.
“ To fix the hole in the public finances, the Chancellor can borrow more, but the markets are saying enough is enough, she can spend less, but the party is saying enough is enough, or she can tax more. The big question for Rachel Reeves is whether the public is going to say enough is enough to that as well. ”
This means that the Chancellor has a sizable task ahead of her in the 2025 Autumn Budget, with the need to restore confidence, stick to her own fiscal rules and deliver a plan that balances public spending with economic growth. As Osborne put it, “This is an important moment to re-establish the authority of the government and show it has a plan.”
One of Osborne’s strongest messages was about resisting the urge to act on speculation. “Even the Chancellor hasn’t confirmed the final details until a few weeks before the Budget,” he said.
That means headlines about wealth taxes or pension reforms are often just noise. Acting on them, such as withdrawing pension funds early, can lead to unnecessary tax bills and missed growth opportunities.
Spencer confirmed this trend, “We’ve seen clients rush to take tax-free cash based on rumours. That can be a costly mistake. Every decision should be grounded in your long-term financial plan, not media speculation.”
Osborne explained that fiscal rules aren’t just political promises, they’re signals to the bond market. Break them, and borrowing costs can rise. “It’s a contract with the market,” he said.
Park added context, “The cost of long-term UK debt is at its highest in 15 years. Any sign of fiscal slippage could push rates higher, affecting everything from mortgages to portfolio returns.”
For investors, this means the government is unlikely to borrow heavily to fund giveaways. Expect a cautious approach, with tax rises more likely than spending cuts.
While income tax hikes seem off the table, Osborne highlighted other areas under scrutiny, such as:
And then the ‘silent’ tax rise that comes in the form of fiscal drag – and the potential that Reeves may choose to extend the income tax threshold freeze beyond 2028. Thresholds have been on ice since April 2021 and with inflation remaining high, more people are finding themselves pulled into higher tax bands as their wages rise without any official announcement.
Of course, none of this can be certain at this stage, and as was made clear by Spencer, trying to pre-empt any potential announcements is generally not the right approach, and those with concerns should seek professional finance advice.
It’s not necessarily all about tax hikes. While the focus in any Budget is understandably on tax rises, there is also the potential for new opportunities to arise too. One area worth paying attention to is the ways Reeves could provide support for businesses. A prominent part of the Labour Party’s election campaign was their pro-business stance, which so far does not appear to have been high on the government’s list of priorities.
The Chancellor may look to remedy this, with Osborne pointing to potential pro-enterprise measures, such as expanding the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) and Venture Capital Trust (VCT) schemes, which offer tax-efficient ways to invest in UK businesses, as one possible example. These schemes can provide startups and small business with much needed capital for growth, and for investors with the right risk appetite, the potential for tax-effective returns.
However, both the EIS and VCTs are also illiquid and high risk, and investors can get back less than they originally invested. They will not be suitable for all investors.
Spencer stressed the importance of planning, “Whether it’s pensions, gifting, or EISs and VCTs, the key is to base your investment and strategy decisions around your financial plan, not the other way around.”
If you haven’t had a chance to watch the full webinar, you can view the recording here. The conversation covered interesting anecdotes and fascinating insights into what goes into building a Budget. Some of the key takeaways from the session include:
The Autumn Budget will shape the financial landscape for years to come. Make sure you’re prepared. Sign up for our next two webinars to hear Evelyn Partners’ experts explain what the Chancellor’s decisions mean for your wealth, and how to respond.
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